Traditional, season-long fantasy football gives you the opportunity to prove that you’re a smarter and better person than your dearest friends, but daily fantasy sports offers an even stronger incentive: cash. This isn't financial advice, but here are the ONE37pm NFL Week 4 DFS picks.
(Note: all prices listed are for Draftkings)
High: Josh Allen ($8400)
Josh Allen is probably the best quarterback in the NFL and he’s playing maybe the worst secondary in the NFL. The Bills-Ravens matchup has the total of any game on Sunday’s slate and the bulk of the Bills’ points and yardage will come from Allen.
Middle: Russell Wilson ($6700)
He can’t possibly continue to be this bad, right? In Seattle, Wilson was among the most elite quarterbacks, but Mr. Unlimited seems oddly limited in Denver. Still, a game against the winless Las Vegas Raiders represents an opportunity for Wilson to get back on track, since the Raiders have seemingly neither the pass-rushing nor secondary talent to trouble Wilson and the Broncos.
Value: Geno Smith ($5400)
Geno Smith—pretty good! Save for a Week 2 clunker against the 49ers, Smith has performed as well as anybody could have reasonably hoped, leading the league in completion percentage and ranking tenth in QBR. If not for the lingering stench of getting his face broken by a teammate over $600, Smith would be considerably more celebrated for how he’s played this season. For DFS players looking to load up on FLEX talent, Smith is a great low-cost QB option.
High: Nick Chubb ($7900)
On a carry by carry basis, Chubb is the best runner in the NFL. He may not have Jonathan Taylor’s big-play ability or Derrick Henry’s tank-iness, but he’s a near-perfect combination of quickness, size and smarts. With the Browns terrified of letting Jacoby Brisset do too much, Chubb has finally received the workload and role commensurate with his ability. And, this week, he has a plum matchup against a beatable Atlanta defense.
Middle: Khalil Herbert ($5700) /Jamaal Williams ($6100)
If David Montgomery is sidelined this week, play Khalil Herbert. If De’Andre Swift can’t suit up, play Jamaal Williams. And if neither Montgomery nor Swift are available, then play both Herbert and Williams. These two are the classic “handcuff” backs who can provide RB1 production when given the chance, but are still available at RB2 prices.
Value: Rashaad Penny ($4900)
Despite the presence of second round draft pick Kenneth Walker III, Penny is still the clear lead guy in the Seahawks’ backfield; last week, he played 69% of Seattle’s snaps. This week, Penny should assume an even bigger portion as pass-catching back Travis Homer is now on the IR. While Penny hasn’t recaptured the torrid form that made him a fantasy darling at the end of last season, he’s the lowest priced of any legitimate starting running back, so that alone makes him worth considering.
High: Stefon Diggs ($8400)
To quote Diggs, Diggs is him. He’s really good. Look for any receiving stat and odds are he’s near the top. If you can make it work, an Allen-Diggs stack sounds mighty appealing.
Middle: Courtland Sutton ($6700)
As Russell Wilson’s go-to option in Denver, Sutton is a football magnet, receiving 28 targets over the first three games. In an offense that often seems disjointed and confused, Sutton has been the lone consistent bright spot, beating cornerbacks with his savviness and physicality. Once the touchdowns start coming (and we’re assuming they’ll start coming), Sutton could be one of the top performing wideouts available.
Low: Richie James Jr. ($4000)
Now that Sterling Shepherd is out with a torn ACL, somebody has to catch passes for the Giants. It might as well be Richie James Jr.
High: Mark Andrews ($7100)
With Travis Kelce playing on Sunday night, Mark Andrews is the clear top dog for the main Sunday slate. Once again, Baltimore seems poised to engage in a shootout and Andrews is Lamar Jackson’s favorite target. To hang with the Bills, the Ravens are going to have to let the ball fly—preferably, they’ll let it fly right to Mark Andrews.
Middle: Dallas Goedert ($4500)
Even if Goedert’s ceiling is lowered by the collective goodness of the Eagles’ offense, he’s still incredibly productive while wrestling with AJ Brown, De’vonta Smith, Jalen Hurts and Miles Saunders for touches. He’s either gone for over 60 yards or scored a touchdown in all three games so far.
Low: Jelani Woods ($2500)
Admittedly, I only learned last Sunday who Woods is. But last Sunday, Woods emerged as the Colts’ savior, catching two touchdown passes, including the game winner. Now that the Colts’ receivers are healthy, it’s unlikely that they’ll draw up plays in the red zone for Woods again, but you never know!
High: Green Bay Packers ($4100)
This may seem a bit rich for a defense, but there’s a non 0% chance that the Packers make Bill Belichick retire at halftime.
Middle: Denver Broncos ($2700)
Over their last 10 quarters of football, the Broncos have given up a grand total of 19 points, making them quietly a top defense in the NFL.
Low: New England Patriots ($2300)
Belichick is tricky and the Packers’ offense isn’t exactly overflowing with talent. The Pats have a real chance to drag this game into the muck.
