“Is it Sunday yet?”, I asked myself when going to bed last Sunday, eager for another slate of football games to analyze, bet and profit on.
The answer: almost. Week eight is here, putting us almost 50 percent of the way through the season. With seven games under our belts, the data sample size is starting to stabilize, giving us more valuable insights into what teams are actually going to do. Let’s dive in.
It’s Bills time, baby. Get your coldest beers handy and your favorite tables ready to smash, because this Buffalo team is playing some good football. Who would have thought coming into the season that the lowly Bills would be favored against an Eagles team with a two-year playoff streak, and of course, a Super Bowl win? Not I, but here we are.
The line right off the bat makes sense, and I’d argue it’s even a bit short for the Bills. This Bill’s team is ninth in average scoring margin thus far (compared to the Eagles #22), and Buffalo is a notoriously challenging place to play. What makes Buffalo’s home field advantage (cue the sex toys being tossed at Tom Brady as an example of “challenging atmosphere”) even juicier is Philadelphia’s inability to play on the road: They’re currently -10.5 in the average scoring margin when away.
Philadelphia’s season so far has been the definition of lackluster. Outside of a close loss to the Lions (who are way better than anticipated) and a good win against the Packers (who are, per usual, good), what have they done?
Hmm. Anyway:
Buffalo is coming off a lackluster effort against the Dolphins, but one could argue that they were already looking ahead to this week. After a slow first half, Josh Allen and the boys came to life outscoring the Dolphins 22-7 to close out the game.
What else has Buffalo done at home? Most notably, they only lost to the Patriots by six points. This NE squad has a historic point differential so far (and fun fact: if the offense didn’t step on the field ONCE this season, they’d still be 3-3-1 with how many points that defense as scored).
The biggest X-factor here lies in the anemic Eagles offense, ranking 20th in passing efficiency and 16th in rushing efficiency, both pedestrian rankings. Buffalo’s 10th ranked defense should be able to keep these Eagles from taking flight.
Roll Bills, -1.5.
It's Tannehill time in Tennessee, baby! Did he objectively look more handsome in South Beach? But of course, but no time here to discuss good looks, just good bets.
Right off the bat, Tannehill looked like the QB he was drafted to be back in 2012 during his first career Titans start, throwing for an impressive 312 yards. His completion percentage in his two games so far: 81.2 percent, followed by 79.3 percent. Mariota was under 60 percent in four of the six games he played this year. Something to chew on.
What’s important here is that Tannehill is surrounded by a ton of talented players (both RB and WR), and his rise should free up more room for Henry to bulldoze through the defense.
An important factor in this game comes down, not surprisingly, to turnovers.
When the Bucs are on, Jameis is taking care of the ball, but that doesn’t happen too often. He’s had at least one turnover in four of six games this year, including six turnovers last week. Certainly, that won’t happen again, but the Titans do rank 10th in turnover differential, compared to the Bucs at 22. While the Tannehill turnover-sample-size is small, he does have a 125:77 TD/INT ratio over his career. Combine that with the Bucs 25th ranked defensive pass efficiency, and I expect Tannehill to have performance better than expected.
Combine the above with the fact that this line is holding strong at -2.5 with only 35 percent of bets indicates that big money is also backing the Titans at this line.
I’ll be joining the sharps.
Tannehill time, -2.5.
Bonus Pick: Patriots -12; anything under -14 I’m taking. Until their defense proves it’s not as dominant as it seems, I’m taking the Patriots, no questions asked. They are looking for another clinical performance over a talented-but-inconsistent Browns team.
May our beers stay cold, and our bets stay hot. See you next week.
