Tom Brady Retirement: Analyzing His Card Market

On February 1st, a BGS 8.5 copy (pop 28) of Brady’s rookie Championship Ticket Auto sold for $2.3 million via PWCC Auctions on eBay. 

The previous high sale for this card was $1.72 million in April 2021 and it last sold in October for $1.54 million. 

It’s not surprising to see the immediate lift in this card’s value as just about every media outlet has been discussing his retirement. 

A second sale of this card netted $2.04 million on February 19th and is still higher than the previous all-time record despite a slight dip. 

There are 1,108 copies of Tom Brady’s Bowman Chrome PSA 10 rookie card that features him in a Patriots uniform and is one of his flagship rookies that commands 5-figures on the secondary market. 

The card hit a high of $28,000 in February of 2021 before dropping to a low of $13,200 in July. 

The card last sold on 2/22 for $15,460:

Higher supply cards are always more vulnerable to price fluctuations and this one is no exception. In the past 3 months, the card has lost 18.24% of its value, or $3,447.

There are just 57 copies of the Tom Brady Bowman Chrome Rookie Refractor in a PSA 9 grade and a copy last sold for $168,000 on 2/19:

In the past 3 months, the card has lost 12.5% of its value ($24,000) and is down from its all-time high price of $192,000 in December 2021. The tail-end of 2021 and the beginning of 2022 brought a wave of record card sales across multiple sports and have since retracted significantly in value, but Brady’s cards have not had as steep of a drop. 

This card in a PSA 9 sold under $1,000 up until early 2015, so when zooming out, Brady’s market has exponentially grown and stayed pretty consistent in value. 

An alternative rookie card that features Brady in his college uniform has taken a 32.5% price hit ($780) in the past 3 months and sold for a record low in that same time period at $1,620 on 2/20: 

This card hit a high price of $3,575 in February of 2021 and has since lost value. For perspective, this card sold for under $100 in 2015 and is up 2,845% since its first recorded sales in 2007. 

There are 28 copies of Brady’s 2000 Contenders Championship Ticket Autograph and a copy in a BGS 8 grade last sold for a record $1.41 million on 2/5:

The previous record was set in March for $1.32 million before dipping to $1.02 million and accelerating in value just a few days after Brady announced his retirement. There are only 100 copies of this Championship Ticket Autograph making it Brady’s most desirable rookie card. 

This 2000 Tom Brady SP Authentic rookie has just 98 copies graded a PSA 10 and last sold for $114,000 on 2/19: 

In the past 3 months, the card has lost 20.83% of its value ($30,000) but is up from a low price of $95,610 in January. In March of 2021, the card hit a high price of $181,200 but has since lost over $67,000 of value. 

Tom Brady entered the league so long ago that he didn’t benefit from the modern card market that features premium sets like National Treasures and Flawless. Because of that, later year cards from these sets garner value on the open market. 

This 1/1 2020 Flawless Brady diamond card with the “7x SB Champ” inscription is currently on auction at Goldin Co. with a bid of $85,000 ($102,000 with the buyer’s premium) and over 2 days left. 

It’s not uncommon to see Brady’s non-rookie cards from premium products sell for 5 figures, but it looks like his retirement news isn’t stopping this card from surpassing a 6-figure sale. 

The next two cards on this list are of the popular Kaboom! insert. Only 5 copies of this Brady Kaboom! are graded PSA 10 and a copy last sold in October for $120,000: 

The card sold for $13,220 on 2/4 (during a peak in the overall card market) and shot up to $120,000 in October. Although the card hasn’t sold on the news of his retirement, it’s on the list for a reason: no copies of the six-figure card have hit the market. Neither have any PSA 9 copies. 

Evaluating a player’s card market is just as much looking at sales as it is how many rare cards surface during an event in a player’s career. This is a small sample size, with only 5 graded copies out of 10 total possible cards, but no one is rushing to sell these after Brady’s retirement. 

Unlike Brady’s 2018 Gold Kaboom!, his 2021 insert has sold after his retirement news. 

There are only 5 PSA 10 copies of Brady’s 2021 Gold Kaboom featuring him in a Buccaneers uniform with the most recent sale of a copy on 2/19 for $52,800:

Only 3 copies of the card have sold all-time, but it is down 12% since January ($7,200). There are two Gold Brady Kabooms from the 2021 Absolute set, one featuring him in a Buccaneers uniform and the other in a Patriots uniform. The latter is less valuable with a last sold price of $43,200. 

There are 186 copies of this Brady alternative rookie card in a PSA 10 grade and a copy last sold for $8,399 on 2/13: 

This is not one of Brady’s most recognizable rookie cards but it hit an all-time high of $10,000 just 1 day after he announced retirement and is up 8.3% ($649) since 1/25.