sports

NFL Week 11 Picks

Some under-the-radar bets are the ticket to the bank this weekend

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

By: Geoff Sheasby

Published Nov 15, 2019

The cold weather has finally broken through. Wind chills alone send shivers straight through the soul.

There’s only one thing to keep us warm: hot, hot bets. Get the oven going, let’s crank the heat for Week 11.

Colts -2.5 (43 percent of bets)

Nick Foles is back, and I couldn’t really care less. Mustache Minshew was serviceable, leading the Jags to a 5-4-1 record ATS.

Foles played in one game and looked great: 5 for 8, 75 yards, 1 touchdown, but this was against a porous Kansas City defense. Minshew came in and went 22 for 25, 275 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception.

If the Colts were -2.5 with Minshew at the helm, who would you take? Me: Why yes, I would! With Foles, I’m banking on a touch of rust, a lack of chemistry and a good showing from Jacoby Brissett back on the field for an ugly win and cover.

The true X-factor here stems from the (lack of) Jaguars defense. This team game up 160 yards to... Carlos Hyde... a week before their bye. Khalil Mack should feast, Brissett is mobile and even without T.Y. Hilton, I love the Colts in a bounce back effort after dropping one in South Beach.

Bears +7 -120 (64 percent of bets)

I’m buying this one up to 7 here.

You know what is supremely interesting to me on this one? Jared Goff over his last 16 games has a 17/16 TD/INT ratio with 16 fumbles. NOT GOOD. Mitchell Trubisky? 20 touchdowns, 9 interceptions.

Fascinating. Has Trubisky looked mediocre this year? No doubt about it, but perhaps Goff has regressed a touch to his true self.

The Rams rank 21st in offensive efficiency, with the Bears just behind them at 26th. Hmm, a wash.

Defensively: The Rams and Bears are tied for fourth.